captioning spoored by macneil/lehrer proctions >> lrer: good evening, i'm jim lehrer. president obama talkabout thwarting future terroattacks >> woodruf and i'm judy woodruff. on the newshour night, we'll talk to denimcdonough, chief of sff for the national security council, d get reaction tthe president's proposals. >> lehrer: then, the sained u.s. jdan relationship, after a jordanian dole agent killed seven cia emplees and himself at a base in afghanian.

>> woodruff: jeffreyrown looks at a treasurtrove of national geographic images fromround the world,ever seen before by the public. >> i didn't ow if i had the piureç at all, but i was gog to do everything i possibly cld, within reason. wiout being eaten. to try to gethatñi photograph. >> lehrer: and we ta the pulse of theation's economy at the start of the new year. that's all ahead, ononight's pbs newshour. major fundg for the pbs newshour is prided by:

>> this is the eine that connectsbundant grain from the americ heartland to haran's best selling whole wat, while keepin60 billion pounds of carbon out of the atmosphe every year. bnsfthe engine that connects us. intel. supportingath and science ucation for tomorrow's innovators. and e william and flora hewlett foundation, workinto solve social a environmental prlems at home and around the world. d with the ongoing support o these institutio and foundations. and... is program was made possible by the corporationor public broadcaing. and by contributionso your pbs statiofrom viewers like you. thank you.

>> lehrer: predent obama has made his latest stement on the government response to the airliner bomb pl. outlined findings this afternn from security reviews he ordered, after the ristmas daincident in detroit. here is some of what the present said. >> as i deribed over the weend, elements of our intelligce community knewç thatmar farouk abdulmutallab had traveledo yemen andç joinedp with extremists there. it now turns out that our inlligence community knew of other redç fls that al qaeda the arabian peninsula sought to strike n only american tgets in the unit states itself. we had iormation that this group was working withn individ] who was known ...

who we now knowas, in fact, the individu involved inç the christmas atta. the bottom line is thi the u.s. governmt had sufficient infortion toç have cover this plot and potentially disrupthe christmas daattack. but our intelligence comnity failed to connt thoseç dots. whh would have placed the suspect the no-fly list. other words, this was not a failure to colct intelligce. it was a faire to integrate and understand the intelligce that we already had.ç the informatiowas there. agencies a analysts who need it had access to it. d our7s professionals were trained toook for it. and to bring it together. now, i will acce thatç inteigence by its nature is imperfect. but it is increasingly cle that intligence was not lly analyzedç or fully leveraged. that's not aeptable. and i will not tolere it. time and again we'veearned that3 quickly piecing together information and tang swift action is critic to staying

one step aheadç of a nile adversary. we he to do better. weill do better. we he to do it quickly. americ livesç are on the line. so made it clear today to my teami want our initial reviews coleted this weekçó. want specific recommendationfor corrective actions to fix what went wrong. i want thoseç reforms implemend immediately so that this don't happen again and so we n prevent future attacks.ç me have suggested that the events on christmas dashould cae us to revisit the decision to close the pron atç guantanamo bay. soet me be clear. it waslways our intent to transfer detainees to other untries only under conditions that pride assurances that our serity is being proteed. with respect toç men in partular, there's an ongoing serity situation which we have been confronting for so meçó along with our yemeny partner. given the unsettd situation,

i'vepoken to the attorney generaç we've agre that we will not be transferring additional deinees back to yemen at thisime. bumake no mistake.ç we will ose guantanamo prison which h damage our national security terests and become a trendousç recruiting tool foal qaeda. in fact, that was an expcit tionale for theç formation al qaeda in the arabia peninsula. as i've always said,e will do so, weç will close t prison in a manner thakeeps e american people safe and secure. as theseç violent extremis pursue new hens, we intend to target al qaeda whereve they take root forgingew partnershi toç deny them sanctuaras we are doing currently th the government in yemen. as ourç adversaries seenew recruits we'll constany view and rapidly update our intelligence a our institutio. as they fine our tactics, we'll enhance r defenses including smarter screing

ansecurity atç airports and investing in t technologies th might have detected the kind of explosivessed on christmas. in short, weç neeour intelligence, homeland security and law enforceme systems d the people in them to baccountibme and to work as intended. collecting, sharin , integrating, anazing and acting on intelligence as quicy and effectively as possible to ve innocent lives. t just most of theç time bu all of the time. that what the ameran people deserve. as psident, that's exactly wh i will demand.ç >> wdruff: for more on today'meeting and what comes next in t >>oodruff: for more on today's meetg and what comes next from the obama administration, re's ray suarez >> suarez: and forhat, we are joed by dennis mcdonough, the chief of staff of e national securityouncil. just a wle ago we heard the presidt refer to this not as a failure to collectut asç a failure to integra. was it one that just invved the accused matrying to

bring down that jetler heading fodetroitw3 or were intelligence agencies routinely not comparg, not cross rerencing their[ information? >> ray, thanks a lot for the opportunity to join you. look, i thk if you look back over the coue of the last yearw3 andrankly over the cour of the last many years i think if anybody wou have taken a beafter 9/11 and said there will be manmany years beforeç you see anoer successful attack, ihink a lot of people would ha taken that bet. i think e fact that we've been as qu been including this year against david colen headley, againsthe five guysr to pakistan, i think this an exale of... those are all amples of the good, hard workcoordinationok, sharing, analysis, rrelation of the kind of informatiothat we've nowç come to pect from our inl community. in an instance like this whers the president indicated 's a; failure,e had come to expect su regular success that it really stands out.

i think what you saw ithetpdeetn the eting today was a whole host of agencies eag to work gether, eager to learn leons from thisç, to up our game as eachf them said. that'sxactly what we expect to do. >> suarez: the president referred to speed antalked about quicy closing these gaps in the cross-refereing of informati.ç he saithe intelligence was not leveraged. can you do that quickly? >> youan do that quickly but i think he referring toç a number of things he saw this tack obviously on christmas day wch throught8sw know. whate wanted to do is adess the shortcomings with urgency. that's w john brenna number of people in eachf these encies have worked overtimehroughout the holidays to ke sure that we understand just wheh the gaps were but nowe want to address them with agilit with alacrity atiu president has indicated. you can do that ickly. not only do we belve we can, but we have en very many

instances like thek2y÷átjns i ouined before where we have. frankly we belie that we must. so we'reoing to keep the presre on al qaedaç central, as iis, in afghanistan and pakistan. we're also going to continue to keep the pressure on al qieea affiliates including i yemen, in somaa, in southeast as and obviously keep our eye on the rget hereç with threats atome. we're gointo do that. we tnk we can do it with speed but we ao know we must do it withpeed. >> suarez:heç president referredo the countries that ha been asked to up their security for flights that y end upç approaching thenited states. can the united stateor aviation ancies compel them to up thr security orç is there anspect of voluntary compliance here? >> well, look, think there's a recognition acrow3 the board at this is a threat we want to confront collecvely. we know that we wa to work together obviously internional travelç is something that byts nature is going to require a rtnership and cooperation.

frankly we know that al qaedç is looking for n opportunities to targeus and our allies a our friends. frany you have a movement he that's killed more muslims than frankly peoe of any other faith. we're going to have to dw on( and south and centl america and asia butlso our friends in t muslim world including in north africaç, ithe middle east and in uth asia. we believe that weon't really need to cpel ourç friends to cooperate witus because i think we unirmly recognize th this is a shared teat. >> suarez: the preside took the opportunity to botassert that he'll stay on tck with closing the guannamo bay prison and at the me time said thatç yemes won't be released and sent ho. help us square those two aspects of the picy. >> asç you know, ray, alllong we've en going through each of tse cases of individuals down at began taun m bay dgt tootcomb, addressing them individually on a casey-case

bas,ç making sure that those that we can traner in a way that will vance our interests and protect the united stas, we do that. obviously under thright conditio and the right circumstances. as the psident said today and as he discussewith the torney general, the current siation on the ground in yemen is not the right circumstans. so he wanted to send that clear gnal. buwe will continue to prosecute/+ thoseases as we put th together, as he has announced anas the attorney general has announced a number of occasions tç the bottom le is this. have to take a step back and recognize that the guantanamo bay detenonç facili is a principal recrting tool for al qaeda and its allies we've knowthat for some ti. as the presidentç pointed o today al qae on a arabian peninsula used ias a motivation and recrgitintool from day one in the information of its organization. the ttom line is we recognize the challenge here we're going to address it front on asç e pat has any number of issu throughout e course of this year. >> suarez: dennimcdonough is the chief staff of theç

national security council. thanksor being with us. >> thank you, ray. >>ehrer: we get three other persctives now on airline security, homeland serity and terrorism from: kebutton, director of the ceer for transportati at george mason university and professor of public policy; steven simon, former terrosm specialist at the national securitcouncil during t clinton administtion, he's now with the council on foreign relations; and cla kent ervin, former inspect general for the partment of homeland securit in the bush administration he's n director of the aspen instute's homeland security progm. mr. ervin, just a few moment ago the white house issued a statemt or issued a statement that t president reportedlyç said his folks th he met with, in other words, hiseam, his 12 folks that were there, and the esident saidç this. quote,his was a screw-up that cld have been disastrous. we dodged bullet but just it was averted by brave indivials, not because the system worked, and that is n acceptable.

while there willçe a tendency to finger inting i will not tolerate i whato you make of that? >> i thinkhat's absolutely ot on. the president s exactly right to say that. he has said essentially the public statent. you can'fix a problem until you acknowledge it. theç president hasaid this before this was a systemic failur it is the first impulse governmentlways to down play crises.c thatas the first impulse here with e department of meland security. the president is quite right, and the sensefzv urgency that he conveyeds also important most importantly to say itas a failure to conne the dots. we created four entitiesfterç 9/11, the department of homeland security, tsahich a part of the department of homelandecurity, the director of natial intelligence a most impoaodly the national counterterrorism center ecisely to make sure that we doonnect the dots in the future. we had the nessary infoationç to prevent this pl but it was thanks to passenge, as the president said, and not our ownpovernments foiled. >> reporter: m simon, how do you read the president'serm "i will not tolete this." heç saibefore it's

unceptable but he has said i willot tolerate. what does thatean? how shouldhat be read? >> i think he'shdoing aouple of things. first, he is in adversarial political contexç in which it's very importanfor him to show resolve because the other side is sayinghat actuallyç he's shown iufficient resolve. >> lehrer: y mean the republans. >> t republicansç, absolutely. second, he's got to send a message to the national securi bureaucracy that they've really got to be careful inhp secondly, he's sending a message of reaurance to the american people that this ry near miss restered on the white house reen. they underand it was aç prlem. they're going to do somethin about it. think the message was clear but it was intded for three audiences. >>$ audiences heret least? >> ihink it was at least three audiences. the fourth is the internatnal audience asç well.

the president real has to adess two major audiences. the u.s. people,ç amicans travelhroughout the world and others come to this country. i was disappointed wn he didn mention the fact that there were not only americs on tt flight to detroit. u have a bombó#:u i think you're sendi a message thathe u.s. may takeñi stronger ldership in counteerrorism. it does seem to have fallen backecently and become slightly defensives is prablyç a good word. he'sesuring the world community as well as the american population. lehrer: what about the bureaucracy of the u.s. government >> the bureaucracy i diicult. bureaucracies do have thei failings. theyç inevitably are t rfect. peop talk about a totally safe airli system and a tally safe transportation system. that's simply not possible. onym this occasion ihink the system d fail exactly the wahe pointed out. there's inrmation there. itas handledúbhdly. you find o why that

happen. you make sure doesn't happen again. and you also lk forward because a terrorist wille[ playing gamewith you. yohave to look forward to ways they're going to try an tweak the systemget around the system in the ture. think that's a real challenge for the security people. >> lehrer: mr. ein, right after 9/11, the same words were spoken. must doç things now to mak sure this never happenagain. >> precise, jim. it's so rim reminist 9/11. infoation was collected. it was not translated and th significance was not osped unl september 12. the c.i.a. had listed o of the hijacks. onceçhose hijackers came to the cotry not shared with the f.b.i.. had it been, the f.b.i. presumablyould have tracked them down cause they were living under their own names in san diego in the phe book. similarly here as the president sa again today, the nsaintercepted messages that sd a terror attack was being anned in yemen using a nigerian.

thç suspect's own father, a respected nigerian bker went to the state deptment not onceut twice. talked tuxe central intelligence agenctoo. then flowed up with telephoncalls and with written counication. as t president said that was enough at a minimumç to g him on the no-y list in which case he wouldn't have arded the flight at all. >> lehre mr. simon, youç know this. you've wked in government as a career. you're a spealist in this particular area.v: do you leave theords... hearing the words of the present with a sense of confidenceç "w, final he, they're going to get tir act together and we're going to stop thiand they're going to stop... they're gog to start connecting theç dots, ecetera, et cetera, et tera"? >> well, look. this case was colicated by thfact thatç under the way we e intelligence,78p&h! h didn't ge the system what e system needed to move, to mo expeditiously.

normally a walk-in to th embassy who ovides information on auspectedç rrorist is not going to be put at the t of the cue until he's imparng some actionable intelligenceç ich means somethg really specific. and this manasn't. >> lehrer: okay. let's move it tohe next step. if something similar happens today because ofhat almost happened over theç landing i detroit, thiwill not... this will be averted cause of the fact thathe president isç moving and the uted states government is moving and t wod is moving. u don't... i don't think ur answer says yes.@z >> seewhat's going to happen now is that the thresholfor rerting this kind of information and for allocati a loof attention to this information, this rt of informion is going to go way up.ç which means that t people whose job it is to interet it, analyze it and assess s significancewk1, thr job is

just going to beore difficult.... >>ehrer: put thelç on the watch list. when in doubt,ut them on the wah list. >>f course. if youere an embassy at this int and somebody came in and said, u knowç, my son is hanging out with the wrong people and, you know, he's taking a real an-american line and i'm not really happ abouthiq i think you should wat him. you ow, you're going to send a ash cable to washington saying we've got to something abt this guy.ç >> lehrer: y agree that things are goi to happen, mr. tton? do you agree they'll bthe ght things. >>hings will happen. i think e point about this case was the bomber bacally had visa. it's n too difficult to# and pull him o. >> lehrer: let me stop y there. it really isn't.ç there are data banks within the u. government that has the na of everybody who has a vi, right? >> exactly. if youet some report there'snotk while you can check. you can be safe rath than sorry. i'm surprised th didn't do that. one of the dangersf the rrent situation though is

we're moving towards fusing on the aviation sector. at's where theç recent even have occred. we're trying to stop feign nationals coming io the countrwho are undesirable. the gñv is you can get comacent about domestic terrorism in manplaces outside of america, theç standard thod of terrorism is noto attack the aiine. obviously enish. have bombs on theç metro syst. we have the situatioin tokyo where wead gas pumped into subway systems. i thinkw3 the tuation is raer more complicated than simply handling foren nationalcoming into the cotry andç collecting intelligence on them. the's a lot more intellence out there which we've not heard out which needs toe dealt with.4úyr.9ehret with mr. ervin that said, what mr. button st said, the fact of the matters it's anç airplane incident thawe just had. not other one of these kinds of incidts that you were lking about. that's stillr'gvxz be the fos. is it not? >> unfortunaly yes.

i say unfortunately cause we do have this tendency which suffer froç to always fight the last w. this was an airle attack. therefore we're going redole our efforts in the aviation sector. we've done more alreadin the aviaon sector than any other because that's how 9/11 happened again. i think he's right tsay that ere are also vulnerabilities ilç the maritimeector, the mass transit secr. we nd to focus on those as well. >>ehrer: meanwhile, doçou ve a feeling of confidence now? you've been involved in is also in the vernment right after7s 91 and you were involved in thisery piece of rk. doou think, oh, now they're going to get snit. >> jim, i'ç getting there. the president sa the right things, point one. he's already taken a numr of steps inv: terms of rror watch lists and there are more to comes he also said today. but the one thing he didn't talk about today is accountabity.!3 we've not yet heard whetr anindividual in the bureaucracy who di't connect the dots igoing to be held accotable for it byç losing his orer job. that needs to happen >> lehre that does need to

happen. somedy should be fired for what happened. >> this wholphraseç that we got fr the nixon administration. mistakes were made. mistakesere made by people. unless andntil peopleç are held accountable, mistakes will continue to be made. >> lehrer: do you agre >> go back to truman and the bu stops here. someoneghas to be accountable. >> lehrer: m simon, do you age? >> i think you will find tha people did their js ç. they had intellince that was of an ambiguous nare. it was put inç the tracthat ambiguous information is put into. >> lehr: don't fm anybody. >> the dots would have bn connected eventuly. >> lehr: okay. quickly starting wh you, mr. simon. theñi president righon the no yemenis from guaanamo back to yemen? >> ion't think there are going to be y yemenis going ck there. >> lehrer: he's right to say that? >>ell one of theñi yemenis who went back happs to be at the

head of al qaeda, the arabia peninsula, which is eç group we're real worried about. >> lehrer: enough said mr. button. >> exactly theame. public cfidence demands they stay atw leastn some form of serity detention. >> lehrer: an autotic decision. >> absolutely. was inevitable. no queion butç the president had toay that. we're gointo suspend the patriation. if i couldriefly disagree!3 with my friend ste. >> lehrer: you may >> intelligence is alway ambiguous. it doesn't get any cleer than it was here. unlesse connect dots in this instance, aven help us in futu cases. lehrer: you still don't want to fire anybody, mr. s[mon. >> t thing is, it is often ambiguous and clark is absolutely right abo that. but it does get ss ambiguous. if mr. abdultallab had come in to the bassy and said, listen, myñlson nts to blow up an ailane and he wants it toe a christmas present to the amican people. and i know he's rely seri)uj about this a he gave the names of some his son's

associatest would have been different. >> lehre isn't that more than aç little t? i mean that would a hu.... >> is a big dot but there are walk-ins who dcome intoq information. >> lehrer: we'll leave i there. gentle mber, thank you all three very much.ç >> woodruf and still to come on the newshour: the spy who killed cia employe in afanistan; out-takes from thousands of nationageographic expedions; and taking stock of the s. economy. that folws the other news of the day. here's hari sreenivan in our newsroom hari. after closing for two days under threat of tack. embassy sa the threat had paed after yemeny forces on mony. in all, the government sent thousands of tops into two provinces and eç region around the capital tgo after militants. a government stament said serity is good in the foreign embassies s abated.

the u.n.'sorld food program has suspended operatio r southe somalia. a spokesman today cited sing attacks on aide rkers a spokesmatoday cited rising attacks on aid workers and extortion demands byrmed groups. he said it's "virtuall impossible" to rch as many as 1 miion somalis. ch of the south is controlle by thel shabaab rebel group. their spokeen said today the world food program is a spy agency, and will n be allowed back. an arctic blasextended its reactoday from the eastern u.s.o the deep south. hard free warnings were issued all the way to the flori panhdle. farmers in the region shed to save strberry cropand citrus groves. mewhile, parts of the great lakes and the northet were shoveng out of other cord snowfall. forecasters pect the bitter cold to stick around all wk. 2009 wilgo down as the worst year for u.s. auto sales i arly 30 years. chrysler was hardest hit, wi sales do 36% from 2008. neral motors was down 33%, a ford was off 15%. the mar japanese brands were

ofas well. ford and chrysler did rert sales gains december, coared with november. wall street marked time afr mond's big gains. the dojones industrial average lost nearly 12 points close at 10,572. e nasdaq rose a fraction of point to close a2308. the rise in heth care spending in the u.s. slowedn 2008, by the most inearly 50 years. still, it gr faster than the nation's overa economy. a government study, by the centers fomedicare and medicaid serces, found health spending topd $2 trillion. that works out to an avege of about $7,700 forvery american. those are some othe day's main sties. i'll be backt the end of the program with a preview of what you'll find tonight on the wshour's website. but for now, back to jud >> woodruff: informationas emerged about possible jordaniaconnection in th attack that killed seven ericans at a cia operating ba in afghanistan. gwenfill has that story.

>>fill: new details surfed today out the attack, a suicide mbing allegedly rried out by a double agent working with the u.s. the names of the victims he not been released by the cia t family members have identied 3. 37-yeaold harold brown junior orinally from massachusetts leaves behind a wifend three ildren. his concern was to make the wod a better and safer place for evyone who lived here. i think that fled his own commitment to the litary and to ourountry and indeed to the people that he was tryg to he. >> ifill: remy wise was a 35- year-old former navy sl who worked as a securityontractor. frnds have already set up a memorial on fabook, including is entry: "he wadoing what he wanted to ." and 39-year-old scotmichael robersonas working as a security officer. he leaves a wife who was eht mohs pregnant. ey will each receive a star re on the agency's memorial

wall at the headarters in langley, virginia, commemorang those who haveied in the line of serce. an eighth viim identified as a jordanian spy was also killein the attack captain sharif a bin zeid was a member of throyal family, and received a ste funeral on saturday. he reportey recruited a top informant, humamhalil abu- mulal -balawi, the alleged double agent working for a qaeda. th32-year old was a doctor from zarqa, jordan, also the hometowof abu musab al-zqawi, the slain leader of al-qaida in iraq. a c.i.a. spokesman would not confirm al-balawi'alleged role in t attack, saying in a statement:

a key part of the operations have been u.s. drone aircraf strikeon insurgents. he bomber stck at a base coordinating thetrikes on taliban mitants near the border with pakistan. >> ifill: so who was t attacker, and hodid he get close ough to carry out such a devastating atta? for that, we turn to two m who have been trking just those questions. david natius, a columnist for the "washington post" o has covered inlligence issues for many years. and jarret brachman, the autr of "global jihism" and the form director of research at west point's combatingerrorism center he now tches at north dakota state univsity. david ignaus, this sounds like a plot from a noveloneç you may have wrien actually. what do you know about h this unfolded? >> well, what know is that the jordaniaintel service which habeen a key partner for the u.s. in fighting al qaeda for ny years developed this doctrineç, this young doctor as a pontial penetration of al

qaeda at a high level. he see toç have been turned. he was a radical jihadist. heasç somebody's whose writings appeared websites. you can trachis trail. the jordians have seemed to have turnedç himnto what they thght was a double agent, somebody was normally a jihadist butó[ workinfor them. in that guise he was makg s plans with al qaeda and ended up here on the afj1 at's interesting is that he came, it sms, a triple agent. that somehow al qaaç flipped him back a sent him into this camp apparently bringg really hot intelligence out theó[ perhaps hing the locations of the number t in al qaeda, just tantalizing stuff forthe americans. ey left him in the gate and he h a suicide bomb. >> ifillis it generally undersod$ inlligence circles or even in jordan that the u. inteigence community was

working solosely withç rdanians? it's understood for people who pay attention to this. i wrote a novel, a body of lies, that wasç me into a hollywood moviwith leonardo dep pre-owe. the whole scene that movie isçó jordan is a k in the fit against al qaeda. jordania generly know abouit and are proudf it. the fact that the jordanians afghanistan at that cle range i expect people di't know tha >> ill: jarrettç achman, explain to uwho this individual was. who s he? what do we know about him? well, you know, the thing that iidn't know him by that name. knew him by the name/+ñ , differenfrom that one which was thmoniker he was using online. since at lea 2007 this guk has come one of the most prominent al qaeda jihadists ndits. and soid@is guy is, yoknow, what youight consider a mmentator. he takes the b ideas of al qaeda and tries to transte

em intoç digest i belie tidbitin compellingç essay formats r the followers. >>fill: this all happens online? >> yeah, and, you knowheç started off as cheerleader kind of the side lines. what happeneis he was recognizedy more formal al qaeda, you know,ç web administrators as having aot of potenal. ey basically promoted him to this elite status. ll, over the courseç of writing tensnd 20, 30 essays ople began to really take tice that this guy had potentialéo over the course of seval years he became one the most heralded esyists or jihadistsç pundits onhe forums. >> ifill: s it significant that he was a phician? >> well, youç know, tha information ver came out. the only biogrhical information ever knew about hiç was that he was born sowhere in the northern part of the arabian peninsu, that

he was married and hadçwo kids in his early 30s. all we had to on what really the essays that hhad. they were thghtful. they were rabid.ç they were ve creative. >> ifill: you mentioned anothephysician.çó do you tnk there's a connection tre between their two occupation >> i'm just guessi but i'm thking that one reason that heas seen as suchç a valuable potential penetrion of the al qaeda ccle was that as a physician, he might be able make his way tj conceivably there s hopes of gettinhim close to osama bin laden. it veryç interesting that he again we have an example of a very wellducated person in the muslim world, doctorçó p we've seen other docto in britain in these plo. it a reminder that the very top of sociefy, thbest ucated often the most prosperous pple seem to be vulnerableo thisç type of cruitment. >> ifilla lot of people don't alize that the c.i.a. has bases in war zes. what was the signicance of

the c.i.a. havingç an opost ? >> this was an important bas gwen. it's very close to the areas of paktan. this base was used for gathering information at could then be given the targeters for our predator dre attacks on key al qaeda and talibanç gures who are hing out in these tribal areas of pakistan. it was said to be key hub forç information. they were meeting withgents . unfortunatelç they seemed to have invit the agents inside the base which was danrous but it w an important place in this war. i talked to c.i.a.çfficer today's who said we haveone so much dage in the last year against this enemy, against al qaeda a p taban, we have to expect they're going to tryo hit us back. it won't stop us from ntinuing the activity that th base was doinu. >> ifillthe president talked about the flexibility wi whh al qaeda is

demonstrating andçchanging its tacts. is that something have begun see? was is unfortunate episode a signf how alç qaeda is changing a becoming something else? >> well, i mean i think this is really a d the sense th this was a guy who was something i've calle a jihadist, somebody wko cheers from the side lin as nothing morehan a hobby. we then took the next ep and did somethg. he's providi aç role model r the thousands of people who are in these jihadist discussion forums that ty too cabe an al qaedaç army of one. they can twout to afghanistan or ty can, you know, go anywhere that the canç pick up a gun or an exosive and do some damage in the name of al qaa. i think this shows bh a¿d5" these guys are and how dedicated they are. >> kfr11iñ one.... >> one of the things wsee in this man writings is that he felt, you know, from at let

2007 thaç he was kind of the presentative of down-trodden communities, of oppressed d persecuted peoe.çó you alsoot a sense that he was very upset wh himself for doing nothing more than talking about it. so it's thisçisconnect between, younow, consuming the ideology butot doing anything abo it that drives guys likeçó him d. forcing them to find way to get outhere and activate themselves. >> ifill: david,inally, doesç this change now the way th c.i.a. operates the ground and in dangerous frontiers likeis? >> people the agency have en saying today no, we're in the line of fi. we know that. we have toç be too to do our work hope it will change the trade craft at they use in meeting th people. >>ç ifill: meing? >> typally in a spy novel and in real fe you meet agentsn safe houses. you don't me them in embassy vulnerable or they canee a lot the people around you. it's not secure to do th<

typically you go outside we stopped doing that iraq and afghantan because we thought it was too danrou r our c.i.a. officers to be traveling. have a feeling people will reexamine that and say it is pro oubecause it's more secure. ey can do less damage. otherwise i think ey'll keep pushing. they think their fig hasç been effective. >> ifill: dad ignatius and rrett brachman, thank youç bo very many. >> lehrer: now, bringing aorld of images toight. jeffrey brown s our report. >> this is tunisian nearly the 20th century i an some of these pictures are just eye-popping iñi mean just beautiful. >> brown: bill bonner has d treasure trove largely to himself forçó 27 yrs. here in the bowls of the "national geograic" society in washington d.c. bonner, theç

chivist oversees a collection osome 11.5 millioimages. >> withouthe excavation ound. >> brown: there's everythi om an expedition at the north pole inç e late 1800s to hunters izanz bar several cades later. coal miners in england in 38 mount rushmore under constrtion in 1947. 5a >>ust can't wait for people see some of these things. >> bro: bonner's underground worlis made up of aisle after aisle of eelopes and boxes containing imas that for the most part went unpuished, called them theç outtakes fm thousands of assignments and exditions. vintage ack-and-whites and ansparencies asçó well as th first commercially successfu color photographs pruced on glass d known as w3 autochromes. there are also 12,00pieces of original art commissied

by t society includingç this wyh painting titled sea monsters now tbe worth severamillion dollars.ç millions of more recent trsparencies are kept in cold storage includi 35,000 specially trained personnel can retrieve them in low-lht conditions. for st of "national geographic"ç's 120 years, images were fileby hand. these otos show workers inç 1933. and bonnerontinues to ... the traditions. the hoings are now indexed computer and erything is beingç digitizabled. geographic staffers ringg a doorbell for access to the highlxç secure vaultave always browed from the llection for their publications, but it's bn ke hidden from the public eye.ç now geographic h started to change that byublishing a 500-page book. "national geographic" image collecti. it spans 12 decas of world events and photoaphic evolution.

a 30-yr veteran of "national geograph" who oversaw the project saysicking a few?; hundred photos from such a hu archive required a detailed framework. >> when you're documting world. we're known for docunting science d climate change. we're known for documentin naturalç hiory. 're really known for exploration. we kind of put mental çly a bucket. withinhose we wanted to tell an imptant story which is every one of these stori we were able t] tell dierently because of t technology we haat our disposal at the time. so, for exple, if you look you can see that we had to stt with black-and-white photographs. thosphotographs look so still.ç mo of the animals are dead in the ely part because we couldn't cture motion very ll. was in black and white.-andhenr photography. glass ples. you couldn't cture motion at all t you can get the color.ç 35 millimetre me.

suddenlyou could capture owl this motion. each chapter in the ok we arranged77k chronolocally. >> bro: chris johns who first worked for the magine as a contract photograerç and came its editor in 2005 said while inside knew what they were sitti on, readers enjod the photos that were selected for theç magaze, no one stopped think about releasing somef the other images frothe archives. >> o of themy things when you've been in institions, sending people all over the rld for more than 120 years , youç n take some things for grand that, in fact, you shouldn't take for granted well, let's slow dn for a minute. let's really look ck in that rich history. >> there's added pleure forw3 johns in seeing of his own photographs inhe new book. he descred the thrill of taking one of them. >>ç butccasionally i'll run to a situation that i know is so rich and ie got my camera iç hand. of coue you get to a point

in your lifehen you realize you've only got so my clicks left in your life. ç you really go after a picture rd. an example of that wld be a otograph i took of aç lion a kalahari dert. the light was terrle. later in the day i fou @il in the mst of a dust storm. black skies. wind ring. i walosing the light. but finallyñi i got one fram out ofrobably about 250. one frameç thatorked. and i didn't know if i hadhe picture at all. bui was going to do everything i psibly couldw3 within reason, without bei eaten, to try to get that photofph. >> brown: more of th previously unseen photos a now on exhibit athe society's headquters. bothç inside and out. t up at night. forç his part ahive

l continue to tend to the vintage colleion one artifact ofç hiory at a time. >> woodruff: finallyonight the econom in the early dayof this new yearwe have seen a string of conflicting signals abt the state of t economy, and today was no exception. in a sign thathe housing marketemains weak, a national assoction of realtors monthly index, ich tracks the number of hes under contract, felly 16% in nomber, a sharper decline than economists had eected. on a more positi note, the commerce departmenreported th new orders at u. factories rose by over 1 percent in novber. that comes a day after news at factory activity in cember rose to ithighest level since april 2006. recent jobs numbers havelso been mixed. while e unemployment rate

remains in the doue digits, new jobless claimsropped last week. so what does it l mean? is the enomy on track for a rong recovery? or wl we remain stuck in a slump? we get t takes: robert barbera is chief econost for i.t.g., a research a trading firm; and dean baker ico-director of the center for economic and poli rearch. gentlemen, thank you both r being with us. i want to start wi you robertçó barera,ou believe that the count is on the cuss-of a realecovery. what do you basehat on? >> ihink the giant challenge for the obamaç adm.was to rescue the banks and to t e financial system back in order. it was a giant chaenge.ç but i thinthey succeeded. that panic that really took hold throughout e country,¿d5"é recess. as a consequence, i ink th's the back drop that you need to get aç genuine covery. >> wdruff: dean baker, you

see itifferently. you basically e saying that they rcu theç banks. that's a good sign. >> it'just that the american economic assoction convtion in atlanta you had lot ofç people running arou saying we'verevented the greadepression. that's a low bar. i should poi out every other untry in the wor to avoid the great depreion as well. people are concerned about, are we creating jobsnd gettg the unemployment rate down? i seeç a story inhich we will obably see growth very, very weak growth and we're lily to see the unemployment rate hoveringç around 10%. >> wdruff: you're focusing on uneloyment whereasç mr. barbera was focusing on the banks. >> i mean my conce is jobs. for mo people thatç is the economy. they're happy to kw that the financl system is relatively sound so waren't going to beç reading about big bank going bu tomorrow. that's of cose good news. what rlly matters to most people iare they secure in their job? d that's not a goostory for most peopl

>> what about that, mr. barbera? >> iç agree wh dean very much in the sense that jobs are key. thtake i have which is not the nventional wisdom right enveloped e economy late last year early lastç year anthroughout much of year was a nic about cash you thought ur banks might goankrupt. you thoughtok they mht pull your wires and so you slasd inventors and you also slashed yourork force. if youok look the data in terms of the amount of job declinover 2009 it was wildly in excessmy of whatou would ha expected based on the g.p. decline. most everybody expts a snapback for inventories. i do too. but i thk you're going to be surprised about the snback for employment as sobody who sort of has to deal thç the details of the monly pulse of the numbers. if you look at thasharp deine in joblessç claims, that surge in the rchasing

managers index, those tradionally are followed by material gainsúffr payroll so i think i 2010 quite distct from dean you're prably going to createç more than 2.5 million js until thnumber one issue is jobs but i think we will be creating them. woodruff:ç it sounds like he's saying we've cut the bone. they inevibly have to create jobs. >> we e seeing a slowerç rate of decline. for ample, taking the jobless claims we were up around 6,000 a week. thatç higher than is consistent wh job growth. if wgo back to 2 last ression, we didn't actually startu! creating jobuntil jobless claims felunder 400,000 a ek. we're stilin a area where we're looking losing jobs in the month of decemb and probably i the first couple of months of nt year. i'm sorry we're in 2010. thisear. and in ter of/+ expecting strong growth inventories we will s a bounce there but much of our inventy acculumationill come from imrts. thatok will not stimulate ou economy.

what you expect to fuel a rebound is housing and aut. ç just don't see that happening. >> woodruff: you me several pointsere. what about the ft that a lot of this would nge as deanç baker just said on imports which doesn't benefit s. mpanys? >> well, if you look atheç swinfor inventories and swing r imports, basically what i expect is about a percentage point swing ft& they'll give third of that ba to imports. that still gives you a ptty impoant advance. inç addition,f you look at those jobless aims numbers orf you look at the job numbers, you know, my d is a physicist. he said it a second derivave world. the change that u want to ke an eye on, theç average change in payrolls ovethe last ninmonths is 75,000 provement. at tharateç, we'll be at 250 by the sprinand if we run 250 to 300,000, wehge something on the order of 2.3 million jo.

that line s been very powerful. it true. it wasç srply negative at the beginninbut it's been an portant improvement. i'm betting that that tren will continue. so i'm nots]f imaginina trend. i'm simply wagering at the trend continue >> woodruff: i'll stay outf the physics point. how do you respond? continue. i an we had some sort of one- time boost, home sal, for exame, were boosted rst-time buyers tax credit. that pulled a lot ofome purchases foard. people whoight have bought this yearç instead made tir purchaseefore when they thought credit would have expired back in deceer. the stulus weç felt the peak pact from the stimulus back inhe third quarter. 're still feeling it this quarter. that will start to wear tó1sñ over the course of t year. we'll have real contction associated witstate and locagovernments because they ve hugeç budget deficits. i see a lot of downward pressure on the economy yeto come. >> woodruff:ust to name a few,he housingw3 point.... >> yeah, think there's an old joke thawhen you have

some stimus, are you building a bridge or a pr?ç do you get or a hump and into the promid land of selfustaining recovery or es the economy after the stimulus dappears? we look at one sector en you have ns today. e auto industry.ç we had the cash foclunkers. you t the sales. people werquite worried yát sharply negative numbers in the fourth qrter. we didn't. the number looksike 11.2 million for deceer.ç and in fact g.m. announced that their production in t first quarter on aç year over year bas will be up over %. for the indury overall it looks like it will be up 50% you've got some improvement there that isignificant. >> woodruff: let me stopou there and get mr. baker's response on thatç >> we' up from extremely low levels 11.2 million would be deplorg if we go back a couple yeaç ago and look at 17 million sales year. we were atncredibly low lels.

we are up om that but thisç is still welbelow normal outp levels. >>o question. agaiwe're talking about growth rates. is the enomy goingo grow af a goolevel? at a good rate? ll it generate jobs? i say yes it wilgrow at a good re. yes, it will genereç a fair amount of jobs. you' absolutely right. at the end of that 12 months the unemployment rate is probab 9%. very disapinting.ç auto sales are probay 12.5, ry disappointing. but it'such stronger than the trajectory you're describing forç either the overall growth rator for the growthn jobs. >> again i see the source as weakness. theç noresidential cotruction numbers came out yesterday were vy weak. we have a collapng bubble therthat i think people haven't fuy appreciated the implications. when theousyb÷ market weens that takes away people's wealth. we're going to see more of a negative wealth effect people can't consume becse they haveç negative he caquit he can quity >> woodruff: whas at the core of the differce? is it you are lookinat the same numbs. >> forasting is a black art

first of all. a right? and i would simply point o that if you go back theç last two deerecession, go backo late 1982 or lateok 1974, early 1975, it is thnature a deep recession to give you a very lg list ofü ko1 abt. as a conquence the consensus coming out of a deep ressionç alys says very meager recovery. it mak a lot of sense. it's just en a horrible way to fecastç. >> woodruff: deabaker, a brief reonse. >> this is a qualitavely different session.on it was brought abo the coapse of the housing bubble. i think it wl be extremely hard trecover from. they're all different. >> woodruff: wre going toç have tleave it there. gentlemen, we thank you th. we apprecie it. >> lehrer:gain, the major develoents of the day. president ama told the nation

it's n clear u.s. intelligence "failed to connect the dot on the airlineromb plot. and, hsaid he won't tolerate it. the president al announced he is halng transfers of detaineefrom guantanamo to yemen, for now al-qaedan yemen has been linkedo the bomb plot. anu.s. auto makers reported sales for all 2009 were the worst nearly 30 years. rysler sales were down again in december not up as weç repoed earlier. thnewshour is always online. hari sreenivasan in r newsroom previe what's there. ha. >> sreenivasanwe talked to intelligence expertsbout the state of.s. counterterrorism efforts and what they thinare the most efftive security rerms. you can ask paul soln your questions out the health of the economy on his making see page. and on arteat, watch a slideshow photographs from the national geographic imag collection. all at and more is on our web site, newshour.pbs.o. judy. >> woodruff: and that'the newshour foronight.

i'm judy woodruff. >> lehrer: and i'mim lehrer. we'll e you on-line and again here torrow evening. thk you and good night. major fundg for the pbs newshour is provided by: >> what the worlneeds now is energy. the energy to get the econy humming again. the energyo tackle challenges like clite change. what ithat energy came from an energy company? everyd, chevron invests $62 llion in people,n ideas-- seeking, teaching, building. fueling growth around e world to move us all ahead this is the poweof human energy. chron. >> what makes us aengine for the ecomy? plants acrosamerica. nearly 2,000 jobs created. we see beyond cars.

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